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When some of the biggest donors to conservative causes made explicit their electoral opposition to a second Trump term way back in February of 2023, it came as something of a shock to the Republican orbit. After all, the powerful network organized under the auspices of billionaire industrialist Charles Koch had officially remained neutral in Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns, a sign of how uncomfortable his allies were with a candidate whose positions were so far afoul from their own on so many issues.
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But by the time the network gathered at the start of 2023, their position on Trump was not really a point of discussion. The deadly Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, was finally a step too far. The chief of the network’s main political arm, Americans For Prosperity, told her patrons that they were ready to back an alternative Republican who showed promise of winning. The group ultimately plowed more than $32 million into former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and another $10 million in broader anti-Trump efforts before throwing in the towel. The hopes of reclaiming the party from this gatecrasher were dashed and they had to live with Trump as their standard bearer.
It’s been six months since Haley ended her bid, and just over six weeks since Biden followed suit. Vice President Kamala Harris has scrambled the electoral map, and might look like more of a threat than Biden on some key Koch issues. So where does that lead Koch World and their deep pockets?
Not far from where they’ve been all along—doing their best to help Republicans not named Trump. Despite some pleas from Trump apologists who still pony up cash to the organizations operating under the Koch umbrella, the leadership remains unbending in their decision to stay out of the presidential race altogether.
Instead, Koch-linked strategists say their main goal is to be a check against unified Democratic control of Washington. To them, a progressive sweep of D.C. is the biggest threat this fall, and to that end, staff and volunteers have already knocked on more than five million doors to help their Senate prospects, especially those in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana.
At the House level, the Koch network—and those who take their cues from it—are focused on about two dozen races, many of them in deep-blue states like California and New York, where voters have shown a willingness to split their tickets. There are currently 17 Republicans from districts Biden won in 2020 and five Democrats from districts where Trump won. With Republicans holding a razor-thin majority, these races are likely to see some of the highest spending in some of the most expensive media markets.
While the Koch network may be steering clear of the top of the ticket, it’s flowing mightily toward these top-target congressional races. The main Koch-aligned super PAC, Americans For Prosperity Action, is in at major levels; it was investing just shy of $70 million in all of 2022 and almost $48 million in 2020. This year, campaign finance reports covering spending through Aug. 12 show the group had already spent $78 million on federal races. And there are still about three months of cash that is not yet accounted for this year.
If it seems like outside groups are playing bigger roles in campaigns than in the past, it’s because it is true. During the 2020 campaign—the last presidential race, albeit one that unfolded during a pandemic—outside groups spent $686 million, not far from the $663 million of 2016. Already this year, outside groups have spent $1.3 billion. Of that eye-popping total, $778 million has been dedicated to the presidential campaigns, suggesting the Koch decision to sit out the White House race hasn’t choked off all of the heft, just the expertise and efficiencies that come from a penny-pinching leader who is unmatched in getting a return on his investments for his political spending.
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