A SNARLING Vladimir Putin would launch sabotage attacks across Europe if the US gave Ukraine power to fire long-range missiles inside Russia, a military expert told The Sun.
But Kyiv needs to be given the freedom to hurl those rockets at key targets deep in enemy soil if it is to defeat despot Putin.
East2WestA Ukrainian attack on Putin’s Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol, September 2023, using a Storm Shadow missile[/caption]
An incredible attack by Ukraine on Boxing Day last year using a Storm Shadow missile
APAn US ATACMS missile shown in action in the US[/caption]
A Ukrainian soldier takes cover in Avdiivka, last December
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Kyiv on Wednesday
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called for his counterparts in the US and UK to grant permission for shooting long-range rockets over enemy lines.
At the moment Ukraine has access to British Storm Shadow and American ACATMS missiles – but are are limited in use for fear of escalation.
Kyiv argues that it needs to strike Russian air bases, ammunition depots and other key military targets to fend off Putin’s attacks.
It needs to be able to take out Russian bomber fleets which drop lethal “glide bombs” on Ukrainian targets.
And the move would force Russia to shift its air force further back for protection, using more fuel to get to the frontline and limit the number of feasible hits.
Keir Giles, an expert on the Russian military at Chatham House, said the Kremlin is likely to carry out strategic attacks on Europe if permission is granted.
If Putin’s government is “surprised or upset”, he warned, it could ramp up already “ongoing campaigns of sabotage and reconnaissance across Europe and in the UK”.
And he said it’s actually the countries bordering Russia – most at risk as a result of escalation – who insist that the relaxing of restrictions is crucial for Ukraine to win.
Mr Giles said: “It’s the front line states bordering Russia that have called for all of these restrictions to be lifted,.
“If this escalation that the United States is so concerned about were to happen, they would be the ones in the firing line.
“And yet they are the ones that are in the least doubt that Ukraine needs to be supported to the maximum extent possible.”
He added that the ability to fire long-range missiles inside Russia won’t win the war for Ukraine – but it is a key piece of the puzzle.
Speaking about the need for this shift in policy, Mr Giles said: “Ukraine needs to extend the area that it can actually hamper Russian operations.”
This is so it can launch renewed “military offensives” and crack down on “ongoing campaigns against Ukrainian civilians and against national infrastructure”.
Speaking of sabotage attacks across the West, Mr Giles explained: “We’ve seen already a spike in the number of sabotage attacks that have been carried out across Europe.”
They could involve seemingly random fires at specific targets, cyber attacks or intelligence gathering.
He said: “For example, the arson attacks that are carried out against sometimes seemingly random targets, like a warehouse in East London, an Ikea in Eastern Europe.
“Other times, it’s reconnaissance. It’s looking for how Russia could do damage in the future.
“It’s mapping out critical national infrastructure, emergency preparedness, logistics links across Europe that would be essential in the event of a broader conflict.”
So far Ukraine has only been able to use Western long-range rockets against targets in occupied Crimea and some other regions annexed illegally by Russia.
The US and UK have held back on loosening permissions because of a fear of retaliation.
There are concerns that Putin’s so far empty threats over nuclear revenge could be realised if Western weapons struck targets on his soil.
Kremlin hardliners could also push for attacks against missile strongholds in Nato countries – such as an airbase in Poland.
This would invoke Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause – triggering a wider war with Russia.
Zelensky’s renewed call for the relaxing of missile policy comes ahead of a summit this Friday in Washington DC between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.
Ukraine is top of the list on their agenda of topics.
Politico reported that the White House is finalising a plan to ease the missile restrictions.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken hinted that limits could be lifted as he spoke from Kyiv next to UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy on Wednesday.
He said the US had “from day one” been willing to shift its policy” and would “continue to do this”.
It comes after Blinken warned that Russia had received Iranian ballistic missiles and could use them against Ukraine.
He said the move had changed strategic thinking on Ukraine and marked a “significant and dangerous escalation”.
According to Bloomberg, the US is unlikely to change its policy on the rocket use before the UN General Assembly begins on September 24.
Mr Giles warned that Putin, consistently fed incorrect and flattering reports about what is happening outside Russia, poses a serious threat to Nato.
He said: “There are consistent indications that the news that is reaching [Putin] is filtered and it’s only the good bits that get through.
“That is extremely dangerous because it gives him a completely misinformed appreciation of what the real situation is.
“Exactly the same as we saw in February 2022, when Russia launched this assault on Ukraine, expecting a completely different outcome from what they found there.
“The danger is that Putin could once again convince himself that the time is right to launch another attack, only this time against a Nato nation.”
AlamyRussian dictator Vladimir Putin[/caption]
Black smoke billows from a fire on the Kerch Bridge in October last year after a strike by Ukraine
AFPA destroyed Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber shot down by Ukraine with cruise missiles[/caption]
AFPStorm Shadow missiles showcased at a Dubai air show[/caption]
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