As the affordability crisis lingers into a new year, with everything from grocery bills and housing costs to healthcare premiums prompting concern for Americans, a finance-based gift from the government would no doubt be welcomed by many.
Since returning to the White House for his second term, President Donald Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of giving a $2,000 stimulus check or tax rebate to the majority of Americans—a way of marking, what he views as, his Administration’s economic wins. Trump has heralded his global tariffs as the reason behind this notion, claiming that the money raised from the controversial levies can go back to the American people, specifically those from “middle and lower-income” households.
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In a defiant post defending his tariffs against ongoing criticism and legal challenges, Trump in November insisted that people who are against his tariffs are “fools” and that many Americans will soon reap the benefits of the charges.
“We are now the richest, most respected country in the world. We are taking in trillions of dollars and will soon begin paying down our enormous debt… Record investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place,” claimed Trump via Truth Social. “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high-income people) will be paid to everyone.” The President did not specify who would qualify as “high-income” by his estimation.
Trump doubled down on the idea that Americans will soon see some financial returns during his Christmas address at the White House, boasting that 2026 is set to be “the largest tax refund season of all time.”
But what is the status of the dividend and is there a plan in place to help make the payments a reality? Here’s what to know.
The status of the proposed $2,000 payments
On Monday, a White House official told TIME that, in light of the revenue raised by tariffs, the Administration remains “committed to putting this windfall to good use for the American people and continues to explore all options.”
The update echoes scant statements made by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in November. When briefing the media on the status of the dividend, Leavitt said that although there is no timeline in place, “the President made it clear he wants to make it happen, so his team of economic advisors are looking into it.”
Adding to the vagueness behind the dividend proposal, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview last year said the payment could come “in lots of forms.”
“It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the President’s agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans,” Bessent told ABC News in November.
Furthermore, in late December, when asked if Americans should expect to receive the $2,000 check in 2026, White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said it all depends on “what happens with Congress.”
“Congress is going to have to send that money to those people,” he told CBS. “I would expect that in the new year, the President will bring forth a proposal to Congress to make that happen.”
As of early January, a detailed plan has yet to be unveiled to the public.
Experts raise concerns about potential challenges
If the payment were to be made to Americans from low and middle-income households, this could include over 80% of the total U.S. population (over 274 million people), per a Pew Research study from 2024.
Financial experts have repeatedly raised logistical concerns regarding the enormity of the payment and how it would be enacted.
“I don’t think it’s a very realistic possibility, as legislators would have a pretty large concern over its cost,” Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, tells TIME, arguing that the President can’t “unilaterally decide [he’s] going to give away hundreds of billions.”
“Taxing is one component, and the spending is another component, separated by legislation. You can’t just tax people, and then use that to give out to other people again, not without legislative ability.”
For the stimulus checks to become a reality, Republicans in Congress would need to approve of the policy.
Aside from the legal complexities, experts have also raised issues with the math behind Trump’s proposal, citing the total cost of the stimulus checks would likely exceed any amount raised by the tariffs.
There’s also the lingering uncertainty over the tariffs—and the legal challenges they face, Cummings notes. The Supreme Court is still undecided on whether Trump’s use of an emergency law to impose tariffs without Congressional approval was legal. The Court is issuing rulings on Friday in some cases, but it has yet to reveal which ones.
Should the Trump Administration lose the case, there is a possibility that the Administration would have to refund the tariffs to importers, thus lessening the likelihood of Americans seeing the returns on those promised dividends.
And if the Trump Administration does backtrack on the possibility of a $2,000 check, Cummings predicts there could be repercussions.
“Trump has caused himself a lot of harm by over-promising and under-delivering,” he says, citing the affordability crisis as a prime example. “A lot of people actually change their economic behavior if they anticipate a check. So if that $2,000 doesn’t materialize, I think people are going to express a lot of frustration.”
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