US and British security services have huge intelligence gathering capabilities in the Middle East.
This will allow them to piece together exactly what happened in the moments before and after the lethal explosion at al-Ahli hospital.
Twitter @IDFPoint 1 of evidence that appears to put Israel in the clear for the al-Ahli hospital blast: a failed projectile appears to explode mid-air on an Al Jazeera livestream[/caption]
Twitter @IDFPoint 2: The object appears to fall toward the al-Ahli hospital, causing an explosion upon impact[/caption]
Tonight, the White House’s National Security Council said the “current US assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, shows Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza”.
And crucial evidence featured on an unverified audio clip between two alleged Hamas terrorists has one asking if the device is “from us”, with the other replying: “It looks like it.”
The first key piece of evidence is a livestream from Al Jazeera, with a timestamp of 18:59 — matching the timing of the explosion.
It shows what appears to be a failed projectile exploding mid-air, leading to an object falling on the hospital’s location.
This is consistent with Israeli claims the blast was caused by propellant from a misfired Islamic Jihad rocket igniting, rather than an Israeli warhead blast.
A video clip aired on Israeli Channel 12 News also appeared to show a salvo of rockets being launched from within Gaza before the explosions rocked the hospital.
Intercept evidence — point 3 — also points to the Israeli account being correct.
On an audio clip released by Israeli military intelligence, two Hamas terrorists can allegedly be heard discussing the explosion — and confirming the rocket came from Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
One says: “They are saying (the rocket) belongs to Palestinian Islamic Jihad.”
“It’s from us?” another asks. “It looks like it,” the first voice responds.
“They are saying the shrapnel that fell from the missile is local shrapnel and not like Israeli shrapnel. It misfired and fell on them.”
Twitter @yzarkaPoint 3: Alleged Hamas terrorists discuss who launched the device[/caption]
Twitter @yzarkaAn audio clip released by Israeli military intelligence has alleged Hamas terrorists confirming the rocket came from Palestinian Islamic Jihad[/caption]
Vital clues are also provided by satellite images (points 4 and 5).
Paul Beaver, a British defence analyst, told The Times extensive satellite and mobile phone images showed the rocket responsible for the explosion was ground-launched, not air-launched.
He added: “You can tell from the plume of smoke that it has come from a ground-launched rocket.
“The Israeli air force has been using precision-guided bombs, not dumb (unguided) bombs on Gaza and these weapons don’t generate a plume.
“Anyway, the rocket was going the wrong way. The laws of physics are on the Israelis’ side.”
The blast site — point 6 and 7 — also provides compelling evidence it was not an airstrike, analysts say.
Only a small crater is visible on pictures taken at the scene.
Instead of being destroyed, cars are pictured showing only fire damage. The walls of the hospital remain intact.
Buildings close to the hospital do not appear to show significant damage either.
Israeli aerial attacks are usually so powerful as to collapse nearby buildings.
Point 4: An Israeli map pinpoints the ‘Gaza launch site’Twitter @IsraelMFA
Point 5: Israel’s satellite images show the relatively small area of the blastReuters
Point 6: This photo shows a small crater, and most cars show only fire damage, which ‘proves it was not an air strike’Getty
Point 7: Walls near the blast area are still intact, which also suggests the rocket was not IsraeliAFP via Getty
Nathan Ruser, an analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said photos of blast damage were “not consistent with an airstrike”.
He added: “They are not consistent with claims that 500-plus people were killed.
“The fact there’s only a very small crater is very inconsistent with an air strike, as is the amount of kinetic damage to the cars that were almost directly hit.
“It looked that most of the damage was done through fire, which is consistent with a rocket that had a lot of fuel in it and, when it failed, was able to spread a fire across a relatively large area.”
Joel Rayburn, director of the American Center for Levant Studies, said: ‘There is no bomb crater here and nowhere near the destruction that would be required to cause (hundreds of deaths).
“The initial reports of an airstrike that allegedly killed hundreds of people are not plausible given this physical scene.”
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told BBC Verify it looked like the explosion was caused by a failed rocket section hitting the car park.
The White House’s National Security Council tonight said that current evidence suggests Israel was not responsible for the lethal explosionAP
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